Recent articles in Greek news sites claim that the current figure for total NPLs in Greek banks has reached €70bn. According to the IMF FSI statistics, 2013Q1 NPLs were €66.3bn with NPL net of provisions at €34bn and regulatory tier-1 capital at €23.3bn:

Greek NPL 2013Q1

Even assuming that half of the increase will be covered by provisions, net NPLs should have reached more than €36bn by now. According to the latest (June-2013) balance sheet data (from Bank of Greece), Greek MFIs had €31,4bn in provisions and a total of €56,7bn in capital and reserves. As a result, based on the €70bn NPL figure, current net NPLs should be €38.6bn (or less if banks took more provisions during the summer months).

This amount of coverage by provisions is quite reasonable (since most of the NPLs will be collateralized with an initial LTV ratio of probably less than 100%). Nevertheless, the continuation of the recession will most probably increase NPLs further and create the need for more provisions. At some point, these will hurt bank capital and could create additional capital needs which would lower the funds available at the HFSF (€11.5bn).

Note: The initial version of the post assumed that banks had to cover 100% of NPLs with provisions which is clearly wrong and led to extreme conclusions (of a need to cover them by additional capital). A recovery ratio of 0% is unreasonable so I have to acknowledge my mistake on that one and thank the reader who pointed it out.