Bank of Greece recently released its balance sheet statement and profit & loss account for the year 2015. One important observation is the significant increase in its profits which totaled €1.16bn compared to €654mn during 2014. I have already commented on this profit flow in my post on the November balance sheet. Assuming a spread of 150bps over the MRO (which is paid to the Eurosystem by BoG) on ELA financing the cumulative profit flow during 2015 was €1073mn, a figure quite close to the total profit for that year.
In terms of bank lending, total bank loans and ELA outstanding are now back to March 2014 levels at €107.5bn and €68.9bn respectively. Nevertheless, this level of financing is supported by a much higher figure for collateral which stands at €189.15bn instead of €177.59bn in March, a fact which signifies the quick deterioration in quality of Greek bank assets (total collateral for December are only €16bn lower than their peak during 2015). This figure is close to 2/3 of their total primary assets (debt securities and credit claims) or more than 85% of credit claims (before provisions). Given the large non-performing exposure of Greek banks it is clear that most of their assets are already encumbered as collateral towards BoG.
One important development that seems to have gone unnoticed is the large increase in securities held for monetary purposes by BoG (as part of ECB’s QE) which have risen from €5.8bn in December 2014 to €20.7bn, although ‘Other Securities’ registered a drop of €6.2bn from €25.27bn to €19.05bn. As a result total ‘ Securities of euro area residents denominated in euro’ increased €8.7bn. Nevertheless, securities held by Greek MFIs did not move much during 2015 which means that any BoG purchases were performed abroad and (all else equal) should lead to a rise in Target2 liabilities. This is confirmed by the fact that ‘liabilities towards the Eurosystem – Bank Lending Operations’ reached a figure of €6.5bn in December while it was in negative territory until January 2015.
Given that securities purchases will continue during 2015 we can expect to observe a further change in BoG balance sheet mix with a larger part of Eurosystem liabilities being financed by securities rather than bank loans, something which will obviously change its net income flows significantly. Whether these purchases will lead to an increase of Target2 liabilities or not will depend on broader developments within the economy and private capital flows.