The death of economic logic

So it seems that Europe and the IMF have found a way to guarantee the presence of the latter in the Greek economic program. The SMP and ANFA profits of the Greek bonds held by the Eurosystem (which are no longer returned by European governments to Greece) will be used as a guarantee for the IMF loan repayments.

These profits amount to more than €10bn in total up to 2020 while the total amount currently due to the IMF is 11.3bn in SDRs (about €14.3bn at current exchange rates).

Since the IMF insists that only a 1.5% of GDP primary surplus is reasonable in the long-run (for Greece), my assumption is that this amount (which currently stands at €2.7bn annually) will be added to the SMP/ANFA profits and provide a guarantee for the IMF (in effect the IMF will have a senior claim on these financial resources). The IMF needs to be able to guarantee its repayment (either through such measures or by maintaining the the Greek debt is sustainable with high probability) in order to stay in the Greek adjustment program.

That way the Europeans will be able to include the IMF in the Greek program without having to satisfy its recommendations for a long-run primary surplus of 1.5% GDP and a larger debt restructuring. This is made easier by the IMF itself who insists that only a 1.5% surplus target is realistic (politically) but if Europe wanted to avoid it then it would have to impose further consolidation measures on the Greek budget. These include more cuts on pension expenditures, a reduction of the exemption on income tax and lower public wages (a total of €4.5bn in additional cuts).

The end result will be that Europe will avoid having to perform any serious debt restructuring in the short-term, include the IMF in the Greek program and face the 2017 election cycle without serious concessions to the Greek side. It will insist on maintaining the 3.5% surplus target for the foreseeable future and place (again) all the adjustment burden on Greek shoulders regardless of the fact that such a target makes no economic sense.

The IMF view that Greek debt was unsustainable, the surplus targets unrealistic and serious debt restructuring necessary did briefly open a window for the return of economic logic in Europe. My feeling is that this window is quickly being closed by Europe which will insist on maintaining the current unrealistic course just because the alternative is difficult politically.